Many evolutionists use software tools to construct evolutionary trees from genetic data. Two mathematicians have just reported in Science1 that several popular “tree-building” algorithms can give misleading results:Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms play a critical role in the Bayesian approach to phylogenetic inference. We present a theoretical analysis of the rate of convergence of many of the widely used Markov chains. For N characters generated from a uniform mixture of two trees, we prove that the Markov chains take an exponentially long (in N) number of iterations to converge to the posterior distribution. Nevertheless, the likelihood plots for sample runs of the Markov chains deceivingly suggest that the chains converge rapidly to a unique tree. Our results rely on novel mathematical understanding of the log-likelihood function on the space of phylogenetic trees. The practical implications of our work are that Bayesian MCMC methods can be misleading when the data are generated from a mixture of trees. Thus, in cases of data containing potentially conflicting phylogenetic signals, phylogenetic reconstruction should be performed separately on each signal. (Emphasis added in all quotes.)Will this workaround cure all problems, though? Only for small data sets – maybe. The more data, the more impossible the task becomes:For small trees one can hope to overcome the slow convergence by using multiple starting states. However, mixtures coming from large trees may contain multiple species subsets where one tree has T1 as an induced subtree and the other has T2. If there are k such subsets, then about 15k random starting points will be needed. Thus if there are 10 disagreement subsets, then 1510 random starting points will be needed in order to sample from the posterior distribution.That’s over 576 billion. Most tree-building programs try to take shortcuts around the computational hurdles, but these mathematicians are not sure that the heuristic algorithms used are successful in avoiding assumptions that could bias the results. Their paper has proven one way the results can be misleading. Are there others?In our setting, BMCMC [Bayesian Markov-Chain Monte Carlo] methods fail in a clearly demonstrable manner. We expect that there is a more general class of mixtures where BMCMC methods fail in more subtle ways. These subtle failures may occur for many real-world examples where the Markov chains quickly converge to some distribution other than the desired posterior distribution. Users of BMCMC methods should ideally avoid mixture distributions that are known to produce degenerate behavior in various phylogenetic settings. A good practice is to decompose the data into nonconflicting signals and perform phylogenetic reconstruction separately on each signal. Our work highlights important unresolved questions: how to verify homogeneity of genomic data and what phylogenetic methods can efficiently deal with mixtures.Thus, they leave some potential gaping loopholes unexplored.1Mossel and Vigoda, “Phylogenetic MCMC Algorithms Are Misleading on Mixtures of Trees,” Science, Vol 309, Issue 5744, 2207-2209, 30 September 2005, [DOI: 10.1126/science.1115493].What this seems to say is that the method might work on closely-related organisms, like species of snails, but the more you mix different types of organisms into a tree of common ancestry, the more the results of these popular methods will give misleading results. Even with the closely-related trees, though, how can one be sure that the answers might “fail in more subtle ways”? And how do we know that once the smaller trees are assembled, the algorithms won’t mislead horrendously in the final mix? Most creationists would probably not have qualms about trees of closely-related “kinds” of animals, like cats for one, or dogs for another. It is the Darwinian assumption that everything is phylogenetically related – cats, pine trees, bacteria, sharks, petunias, turtles, mushrooms, senators – that causes the controversies. Evolutionists often showcase the printouts from these programs in their scientific papers to lend an air of computational legitimacy to their theories (see the fallacy of statistics). Well, we warned you that evolutionists are bad at math (08/19/2005, 07/25/2002). The only illustration in Darwin’s Origin of Species was a phylogenetic tree. Since then, tree-building has become a favorite pastime around the Darwin Temple gamerooms (10/22/2001, 06/13/2003). Impressive as the charts look to the uninformed, they hawk symbolism over substance. This fits Hawkins Theory of Scientific Progress (right sidebar). After reading this article, and the links to previous ones, how do you feel about that NSF Tree of Life project costing $12 million in tax dollars? (10/30/2002). If you want a better Tree of Life, try God’s (search) – it’s free, it’s honest, and you don’t have to play Monte Carlo to find it.(Visited 12 times, 1 visits today)FacebookTwitterPinterestSave分享0
The ads are, as a group, delightfully off-brand. They’re too cool for Microsoft, which has generally dwelt somewhere between stodgy and cutesy in terms of marketing.Better still, they show that Microsoft just might be listening to what users really need: Web Slices to get quick views of personally important sites without wasting unnecessary time browsing between full-on tabs; sharing accelerators for sending along lolcats or other media with a single right-click; and yes, a way to keep the missus from finding out about your love affair with Suicide Girls.The features are nifty in themselves. We’d totally use them if we weren’t already committed to Chrome and Firefox. Related Posts Tags:#Microsoft#web jolie odell Top Reasons to Go With Managed WordPress Hosting Why Tech Companies Need Simpler Terms of Servic… Under waves of ever-increasing competition from Mozilla, Safari, and Google, Microsoft has released a series of edgy, PSA-style online videos to promote Internet Explorer 8.Featuring one-time Lois and Clark actor Dean Cain, the ads are uncharacteristically hip and discuss such real-world Internet problems as the fear of missing something (a.k.a. insomnia by social media) and the fear of your S.O. finding your porn cache. However, at least one of the videos was just too cool for Microsoft. After becoming strangely popular and talked-about online, the video was renounced by the software mega-company and pulled from the promotional website. Somewhere tonight, a creative director weeps.A Microsoft rep wrote in an email to CNET, “We created the… video as a tongue-in-cheek look at the InPrivate Browsing feature of Internet Explorer 8, using the same irreverent humor that our customers told us they liked about other components of the Internet Explorer 8 marketing campaign. While much of the feedback to this particular piece of creative was positive, some of our customers found it offensive, so we have removed it.”The spot itself features a young lady spewing copious amounts of what used to be breakfast on a young man. She’d borrowed his laptop and evidently stumbled upon some hideous new Rule 34 form of online entertainment. The ad serves to highlight IE8’s sneaky no-history InPrivate browsing feature. A Web Developer’s New Best Friend is the AI Wai… 8 Best WordPress Hosting Solutions on the Market
Self-radicalised persons planted bomb on Bhopal-Ujjain passenger train, says U.P. ATS chief Several hours have passed since he made a bold statement about not accepting his youngest son and alleged terrorist Saifullah’s body. Sartaj Khan makes it clear that it was not an angry or a spontaneous reaction. But even as he stands by his decision, he demands that the allegations made by the Uttar Pradesh Anti-Terrorism Squad be proved, for he had never imagined that this day would come.According to a PTI report, Mr. Sartaj said: “A traitor cannot be my son, straight and simple.” He refused to take Saifullah’s body, saying, “A traitor cannot be related to me, let alone be my son.”Saifullah, he says, was indeed the black sheep in the family, despite being the only one among his three sons (Khalid and Mujahid are the other two) to enter college. But the tannery supervisor’s reason to complain was nowhere close to the narrative provided by the police.“His reluctance to support the family by taking up a job was why I was miffed. I can say with surety that there was nothing in his behaviour that suggested he could be a terrorist or even an outlaw,” says Mr. Sartaj. Also Read | Photo Credit: PTI Items recovered after suspected terrorist Saifullah was killed in a 12-hour operation on the outskirts of Lucknow on Wednesday. Religious his brother may have been, but Mr. Khalid never saw signs of radicalisation. “He enjoyed music and a lot of other things that hardliners may not approve of,” he says. Their mother died in an accident in 2014, but the family does not believe that brought about any change in Saifullah.As the conversations with Mr. Sartaj and Mr. Khalid is on, the other members of the family are in the next room. The door is closed and the only sound that can be heard is from the television of people lauding the father’s statement.Mr. Sartaj’s remarkable composure is missing in Mr. Khalid’s response to the tragedy. He says they won’t accept the body because “our father has made the decision and we stand by it.” The narrative too has changed a bit since the encounter in Lucknow. Investigators are now non-committal about the arrested persons being part of the Islamic State. Among other things, the family also wants a probe into the “seizure” of a huge cache of arms from the house where Saifullah was gunned down.The family’s theory is that even in the event of the allegations being true, it was more because of bad influence of others around him, rather than Saifullah’s own inclination towards radicalisation.This is where the focus shifts to the cousins Danish, Faisal and Imran, who were also arrested and are believed to have tipped off the police about Safiullah’s location.“They were welcome here like cousins anywhere else are. If there was anything beyond this, it’s for the police to find out,” says Mr. Sartaj. College dropoutThe strained relations between the father and son persisted for a long time. In between, Saifullah dropped out of Manohar Lal Mahavidyalaya after finishing second year, tried his hand at learning computer accounting and even assisted a lawyer in preparing sales tax cases. But for one reason or the other, stable employment eluded him and, with the passage of time, his father’s impatience only grew.Sitting in the courtyard of their single-storey house next to a mosque in Maqdoom Nagar, Mr. Sartaj recalls that fateful evening when he forced Saifullah to leave. “A couple of months ago we had a huge argument. I slapped him and asked him to leave the house. We never heard from him again,” he says.His eldest son and the only other accessible member of the family Mr. Khalid adds that Saifullah told them before leaving that he would look for opportunities in Mumbai and try to travel to Saudi Arabia for work. It is a rather curious coincidence that Danish, one of Saifullah’s three cousins arrested for allegedly being a part of the same module, left home after a similar argument with his father Naseem, Mr. Sartaj’s elder brother.
Newcastle boss Bruce: I understand Benitez tacticsby Ansser Sadiqa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveNewcastle United boss Steve Bruce is beginning to understand why Rafa Benitez played a specific way at the club.Bruce took on a difficult job at Newcastle this summer, taking over from the very popular Benitez after the Spaniard could not agree a new contract.The Magpies drew 0-0 against Brighton, and were booed by their own fans at half time and full time in the clash.”Listen, whoever we are playing in the Premier League, we’ve got no divine right to beat Watford or Brighton so we all know they are going to be difficult games and that’s what the Premier League is but certainly if we are going to win games, we are going to have to play better and be better with the ball and without it,” Bruce told reporters after the game.”Today, in the first half in particular, we weren’t good enough either and left ourselves open and it’s pretty evident to me after being here eight weeks of why we can’t open up. “If we do that, we’re going to find it a struggle like we did in the first half. It wasn’t until we closed shop a little bit, even at home, that maybe got us a point.” About the authorAnsser SadiqShare the loveHave your say
Wolves boss Nuno: No underestimating Watfordby Paul Vegasa month agoSend to a friendShare the loveWolves boss Nuno says there’ll be no underestimating Watford this weekend.The Hornets go into the game having been thrashed 8-0 by Manchester City.Nuno said, “Quique (Flores) is a fantastic manager and he has done very good jobs around the world.“Anything can happen. Last week and this week are different. We must analyse the games they’ve played and take important information to pass onto the players.“I have had (a big defeat) in football, good moments and bad moments. For us it’s also a moment to try and raise our standards.” About the authorPaul VegasShare the loveHave your say
Any version of “Bad Lip Reading” (video of people talking with their voices dubbed over) is usually ridiculously funny. This rendition, produced by Notre Dame football, is no different.Quarterback Malik Zaire and defensive lineman Jay Hayes are in the studio providing the voice-over work. They are both really, really funny. The footage from the video is from last season. If you’re an Irish fan, you should definitely watch this, but if you’re just a fan of laughing a lot, check it out as well. A little something to brighten up your Monday…Courtesy of Malik Zaire and Jay Hayes.https://t.co/iMLte4Dal6— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) March 21, 2016
CALGARY – Shaw Communications Inc. said Thursday that 25 per cent of its workforce had chosen to accept a voluntary buyout, although it was targeting just 10 per cent. The buyouts were offered as part of its Total Business Transformation plan unveiled Jan. 30.Here’s a by-the-numbers look at some of the transformations that have shaken the company since it enrolled its first cable TV customer in Edmonton 47 years ago:3,300: The number of Shaw employees who have decided to take a voluntary buyout package.650: The number of employees who were expected to take a buyout, based on 10 per cent of the 6,500 eligible employees.1,700: The number of Shaw employees impacted by a corporate restructuring that concluded in 2015.200: The reduction in employees due to a restructuring in 2016 after Shaw bought Freedom Mobile (formerly Wind Mobile) and sold Shaw Media Inc.$2.3 billion: The price Shaw received for its ViaWest unit, a Denver-based computer centre operator, in August 2017.$2.65 billion: The price paid by Corus Entertainment Inc. to buy Shaw Media Inc. in April 2016.$1.6 billion: The purchase price Shaw paid for Wind Mobile in a deal completed in March 2016.10,000: The number of cable TV customers Shaw, then called Capital Cable TV, connected in its first year after starting up in Edmonton in 1971.3.2 million: The number of customers now served by Shaw Communications, including 1.9 million subscribers to Shaw internet and more than one-million Shaw home phone customers.$1.25 billion: Revenue reported by Shaw in its latest quarter ended Nov. 30, 2017.79 per cent: The percentage of Class A voting shares held by the Shaw Family Living Trust, giving founder JR Shaw and his heirs firm control of the company.860,000: The number of kilometres of fibre cable Shaw has installed across Canada.
WASHINGTON – The combined effect of President Donald Trump’s tax cuts and last month’s budget-busting spending bill is sending the federal deficit toward the $1 trillion mark next year, according to a new analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.The CBO report says the nation’s $21 trillion debt would spike to more than $33 trillion in 10 years, with debt held by investors spiking to levels that would come close to equaling the size of the economy, reaching levels that many economists fear could spark a debt crisis.Republicans once laced into President Barack Obama for trillion-dollar-plus deficits but mostly fell quiet on Monday’s news.CBO says economic growth from the tax cuts will add 0.7 per cent on average to the nation’s economic output over the coming decade. Those effects will only partially offset the deficit cost of the tax cuts. The administration had promised the cuts would pay for themselves.Instead, Monday’s report estimates that the GOP tax bill, which is Republican-controlled Washington’s signature accomplishment under Trump, will add $1.8 trillion to the deficit over the coming decade, even after its positive effects on the economy are factored in.The economic growth promises to drop the nationwide unemployment rate below 4 per cent starting this year, CBO predicts, though interest rates would rise more rapidly than the agency had earlier predicted, countering some of the positive economic impact of the tax cuts.The report paints an unrelentingly bleak picture of the federal deficit, predicting it will hit $804 billion this year, rise to just under $1 trillion for the upcoming budget year and permanently breach the $1 trillion mark in 2020 unless Congress stems the burst of red ink.The government would borrow about 19 cents of every dollar it spends this year. Deficits would grow to $1.5 trillion by 2028 — and could exceed $2 trillion if the tax cuts are fully extended and if Washington doesn’t cut spending.“Such high and rising debt would have serious negative consequences for the budget and the nation,” said CBO Director Keith Hall. “In particular, the likelihood of a fiscal crisis in the United States would increase.”Republicans controlling Washington have largely lost interest in taking on the deficit, an issue that has fallen in prominence in recent years. Trump has ruled out cuts to Social Security and Medicare, and Capitol Hill Republicans have failed to take steps against the deficit since Trump took office.But if warnings of a future fiscal crisis turn out to be true, lawmakers might be forced to take painful steps, Hall warned, that would be more draconian than if they tackled the deficit now.With conservatives complaining about the $1.3 trillion catchall spending bill — which blew through previous budget limits by $300 billion over this year and next — House GOP leaders have scheduled a vote this week on a proposed amendment to the Constitution to require a balanced federal budget. The vote is sure to fall well short of the two-thirds required to pass and is being rushed to a vote without hearings or committee debate.“The CBO’s latest report exposes the scam behind the rosy rhetoric from Republicans that their tax bill would pay for itself,” said top Senate Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York. “The American people deserve a Congress that is focused squarely on helping the middle class, not patronizing Kabuki theatre — like sham ‘balanced budget’ votes — from Republicans who blew up the deficit to benefit wealthy special interests.”The White House is also likely to propose rolling back some of the spending increases in the government-wide funding bill, targeting domestic programs backed by Democrats, but the idea isn’t gaining much traction on Capitol Hill.“It’s going nowhere,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C. “We made a deal.”Republicans are unlikely to pass even a nonbinding budget blueprint, instead opting to take a pause in the heat of election season.“Without question, we have challenging work ahead,” said House Budget Committee Chairman Steve Womack, R-Ark., who promised he will be “working with my colleagues in the days ahead to craft a responsible budget plan.”Many economists believe that if deficits continue to rise and the national debt grows, government borrowing will “crowd out” private lending and force up interest rates. And if interest rates go up, the government will have to pay much more to finance the more than $14 trillion in Treasury debt held by investors.Last year’s deficit registered $665 billion, which was well below the record $1.4 trillion posted during Obama’s first year in office, when the Great Recession led to plunging revenues and a spike in spending. The deficit settled below $500 million for part of Obama’s second term but has steadily risen since then.The new report predicts the economy will grow by 3.3 per cent this year but that gross domestic product growth will drop to 1.8 per cent by 2020. It warns that interest rates on government borrowing will spike, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, currently yielding 2.8 per cent, will average a 3.0 per cent interest rate this year and 3.7 per cent next year.“We expect interest rates to accelerate faster,” said CBO’s Hall.
Washington: NASA has discovered a pulsar hurtling through space at nearly four million kilometres an hour — so fast that it could travel the distance between Earth and the Moon in just six minutes. Pulsars are superdense, rapidly spinning neutron stars left behind when a massive star explodes. This one, dubbed PSR J0002+6216 (J0002 for short), sports a radio-emitting tail pointing directly toward the expanding debris of a recent supernova explosion, NASA said in a statement. Also Read – Saudi Crown Prince ‘snubbed’ Pak PM, recalled jet from US “Thanks to its narrow dart-like tail and a fortuitous viewing angle, we can trace this pulsar straight back to its birthplace,” said Frank Schinzel, a scientist at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO) in the US. “Further study of this object will help us better understand how these explosions are able to ‘kick’ neutron stars to such high speed,” said Schinzel. Pulsar J0002 was discovered in 2017 by a citizen-science project called Einstein@Home, which uses time on the computers of volunteers to process Fermi gamma-ray data. Also Read – Record number of 35 candidates in fray for SL Presidential polls Thanks to computer processing time collectively exceeding 10,000 years, the project has identified 23 gamma-ray pulsars to date, NASA said. Located about 6,500 light-years away in the constellation Cassiopeia, J0002 spins 8.7 times a second, producing a pulse of gamma rays with each rotation. The pulsar lies about 53 light-years from the centre of a supernova remnant called CTB 1. Its rapid motion through interstellar gas results in shock waves that produce the tail of magnetic energy and accelerated particles detected at radio wavelengths using the VLA. The tail extends 13 light-years and clearly points back to the centre of CTB 1. The team was able to measure how quickly and in what direction the pulsar is moving across our line of sight. The result supports the idea that the pulsar was kicked into high speed by the supernova responsible for CTB 1, which occurred about 10,000 years ago. J0002 is speeding through space five times faster than the average pulsar, and faster than 99 per cent of those with measured speeds. It will eventually escape our galaxy, researchers said. At first, the supernova’s expanding debris would have moved outward faster than J0002, but over thousands of years the shell’s interaction with interstellar gas produced a drag that gradually slowed this motion. Meanwhile, the pulsar, behaving more like a cannonball, steadily raced through the remnant, escaping it about 5,000 years after the explosion. Exactly how the pulsar was accelerated to such high speed during the supernova explosion remains unclear, and further study of J0002 will help shed light on the process. One possible mechanism involves instabilities in the collapsing star forming a region of dense, slow-moving matter that survives long enough to serve as a “gravitational tugboat,” accelerating the nascent neutron star toward it.
New Delhi: Funds received by startups from accredited investors may be exempted from angel tax subject to complying with certain net worth criteria, an official said. This provision is considered by the government as part of an exercise to define ‘accredited investors’ with a view to increase investment flow in startups. The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) is working on the definition, which would be submitted to the finance ministry for approval. Also Read – Commercial vehicle sales to remain subdued in current fiscal: Icra”Accredited or genuine investors can invest any amount but we will make some criteria for that. It should be liberal enough so that all such people can come under its purview. But it should not be over liberal and extra-stringent,” the official said. “How much a genuine investor is investing per year would depend on his/her net worth. For example, if you invest Rs 2 crore, then the net worth should be 10 times of that. There should be a linkage between investments and investors’ net worth and certain income should be there,” the official added. Also Read – Ashok Leyland stock tanks over 5 pc as co plans to suspend production for up to 15 daysThese accredited investors, which can include trusts, individuals, family member of a startup and unlisted companies, may get exemption from angel tax under Section 56(2)(viib) of Income Tax Act, 1961, beyond the Rs 25 crore limit. Currently, the government allows startups to avail full angel tax concession on investments up to Rs 25 crore. Section 56(2) of the I-T Act provides that the amount raised by a startup in excess of its fair market value would be deemed as income from other sources and would be taxed at 30 per cent. Touted as an anti-abuse measure, this section was introduced in 2012. It is dubbed as angel tax due to its impact on investments made by angel investors in startup ventures. An angel investor is the one who puts funds in a startup when it is taking steps to establish itself in the competitive market. Normally, about 300-400 startups get angel funding in a year. Their investment in a unit ranges between Rs 15 lakh to Rs 4 crore. The department is also suggesting to exempt funds of alternate investment funds (AIFs) category 1 and 2 in startups to be completely exempted from this section. Currently, only certain areas of AIF category 1 are exempted. DPIIT has proposed various measures such as tax incentives to promote budding entrepreneurs as part of the ‘Startup India Vision 2024’. The vision document aims at facilitating setting up of 50,000 new startups in the country by 2024 and creating 20 lakh direct and indirect employment opportunities. In the document, it has suggested setting up of 500 new incubators and accelerators by 2024; 100 innovation zones in urban local bodies; deployment of entire corpus of Rs 10,000 crore Fund of Funds; and expanding CSR funding to incubators. Startup India is a flagship initiative of the government launched in January 2016. The programme intends to build a strong ecosystem for the growth of startup businesses, to drive sustainable economic growth and generate employment opportunities. So far, as many as 17,984 startups have been recognised by the department.