Report Holding global warming to 2C increase still possible if nations act

first_img Planet ‘far away’ on climate goals: study Satellite image of ship tracks, clouds created by the exhaust of ship smokestacks. Image: NASA This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. © 2011 PhysOrg.com (PhysOrg.com) — A new report published in Nature Climate Change, by an international group of scientists, suggests that the goal of holding the average global temperature increase (due mainly to carbon emissions) to 2° C, that the United Nations agreed on at separate meetings in 2009/10, can still be reached, but it’s going to take an unprecedented effort by virtually all of the major countries of the world. More information: Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit, Nature Climate Change (2011) doi:10.1038/nclimate1258In recent years, international climate policy has increasingly focused on limiting temperature rise, as opposed to achieving greenhouse-gas-concentration-related objectives. The agreements reached at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Cancun in 2010 recognize that countries should take urgent action to limit the increase in global average temperature to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. If this is to be achieved, policymakers need robust information about the amounts of future greenhouse-gas emissions that are consistent with such temperature limits. This, in turn, requires an understanding of both the technical and economic implications of reducing emissions and the processes that link emissions to temperature. Here we consider both of these aspects by reanalysing a large set of published emission scenarios from integrated assessment models in a risk-based climate modelling framework. We find that in the set of scenarios with a ‘likely’ (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 and fall to a median level of 44 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2020 (compared with estimated median emissions across the scenario set of 48 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2010). Our analysis confirms that if the mechanisms needed to enable an early peak in global emissions followed by steep reductions are not put in place, there is a significant risk that the 2 °C target will not be achieved. The group, comprised of European, Japanese, Chinese and Australian scientists and researchers, and led by Joeri Rogelj, has been studying the published literature comparing current and projected rates of carbon emissions and has correlated those numbers with an expected rise in global temperatures as a result. They then set up scenarios (using modeling developed by Malte Meinshausen) where they tried to predict likely outcomes (defined as a 66% or better chance) of average global temperatures peaking at or below the 2 degree goal given defined reductions in carbon emissions within certain timeframes. In so doing they found that in order to meet the 2 degree ceiling goal, carbon emissions would have to peak sometime between now and 2020, and then would need to immediately fall thereafter, at least to a median level of 44 Gt (gigatonnes or billion tonnes) of CO2 equivalent in 2020. And it doesn’t stop there, levels would have to continue falling, to around 20 Gt by 2050.And while the group says it believes reaching these goals is possible, it’s clear that drastic action will need to be taken as last year’s estimates of carbon emissions was around 48 Gt, and based on the way things are going presently, many experts fear carbon emissions will increase to 56 Gt by 2020. As part of presenting their findings, the group laid out scenarios that they believe if followed, would result in meeting the 2 degree ceiling. These would generally include replacing carbon emitters (mainly coal) with energy producers that are based on solar photovoltaic, wind and biomass technologies.Also of concern are increases in regional temperatures, which are uneven due to the Earth being covered mostly in cold water. As the Earth warms up, temperatures over landmasses heat up far more quickly than they do over the oceans, thus, temperatures for some places such as parts of Africa, the Arctic, Canada and Eurasia, which are already seeing spikes, are likely to continue to do so. Some experts warn these areas might see the 2 degree threshold in just ten or twenty years.The next round of talks is scheduled to begin next month in Durban, South Africa, and some members of the research team are already speaking out, suggesting that unless immediate action is taken, the opportunity of meeting the 2 degree ceiling could slip away. Citation: Report: Holding global warming to 2C increase still possible if nations act (2011, October 24) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2011-10-global-2c-nations.html Explore furtherlast_img read more

Indias paradise regained on canvas

first_imgA thing of beauty is a joy forever’ is a statement that is especially true for Kashmir. Gallerie Ganesha presents a solo exhibition titled Paradise Regained by Alok Uniyal. Inspired by Kashmir, the show has 20 paintings in acrylics on canvas, each panoramic work defining the state’s breathtaking natural beauty, its culture and eternal romance.This is not the first time, however, that the Uniyal has brought a city’s diverse landscape alive on his canvas. In previous art outings, he has created series of paintings around Kolkata (2007), Goa (2008) and even Delhi (2010), and Kashmir is another series. Also Read – ‘Playing Jojo was emotionally exhausting”I always visit a place and that inspires me to paint my impressions of what I observe. I travelled to Kashmir last year in October, and despite the fact that the state has faced such turmoil, somehow it still retains its mesmerising natural beauty and charm. Why would I then want to paint harsh realities that we read about anyway in papers everyday,’ says Uniyal.  The works also reflect elements of Indian traditional art – like miniature paintings and terracotta art – especially as Uniyal belongs to Uttaranchal.’last_img read more