Report Holding global warming to 2C increase still possible if nations act

first_img Planet ‘far away’ on climate goals: study Satellite image of ship tracks, clouds created by the exhaust of ship smokestacks. Image: NASA This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. © 2011 PhysOrg.com (PhysOrg.com) — A new report published in Nature Climate Change, by an international group of scientists, suggests that the goal of holding the average global temperature increase (due mainly to carbon emissions) to 2° C, that the United Nations agreed on at separate meetings in 2009/10, can still be reached, but it’s going to take an unprecedented effort by virtually all of the major countries of the world. More information: Emission pathways consistent with a 2 °C global temperature limit, Nature Climate Change (2011) doi:10.1038/nclimate1258In recent years, international climate policy has increasingly focused on limiting temperature rise, as opposed to achieving greenhouse-gas-concentration-related objectives. The agreements reached at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change conference in Cancun in 2010 recognize that countries should take urgent action to limit the increase in global average temperature to less than 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. If this is to be achieved, policymakers need robust information about the amounts of future greenhouse-gas emissions that are consistent with such temperature limits. This, in turn, requires an understanding of both the technical and economic implications of reducing emissions and the processes that link emissions to temperature. Here we consider both of these aspects by reanalysing a large set of published emission scenarios from integrated assessment models in a risk-based climate modelling framework. We find that in the set of scenarios with a ‘likely’ (greater than 66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, emissions peak between 2010 and 2020 and fall to a median level of 44 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2020 (compared with estimated median emissions across the scenario set of 48 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2010). Our analysis confirms that if the mechanisms needed to enable an early peak in global emissions followed by steep reductions are not put in place, there is a significant risk that the 2 °C target will not be achieved. The group, comprised of European, Japanese, Chinese and Australian scientists and researchers, and led by Joeri Rogelj, has been studying the published literature comparing current and projected rates of carbon emissions and has correlated those numbers with an expected rise in global temperatures as a result. They then set up scenarios (using modeling developed by Malte Meinshausen) where they tried to predict likely outcomes (defined as a 66% or better chance) of average global temperatures peaking at or below the 2 degree goal given defined reductions in carbon emissions within certain timeframes. In so doing they found that in order to meet the 2 degree ceiling goal, carbon emissions would have to peak sometime between now and 2020, and then would need to immediately fall thereafter, at least to a median level of 44 Gt (gigatonnes or billion tonnes) of CO2 equivalent in 2020. And it doesn’t stop there, levels would have to continue falling, to around 20 Gt by 2050.And while the group says it believes reaching these goals is possible, it’s clear that drastic action will need to be taken as last year’s estimates of carbon emissions was around 48 Gt, and based on the way things are going presently, many experts fear carbon emissions will increase to 56 Gt by 2020. As part of presenting their findings, the group laid out scenarios that they believe if followed, would result in meeting the 2 degree ceiling. These would generally include replacing carbon emitters (mainly coal) with energy producers that are based on solar photovoltaic, wind and biomass technologies.Also of concern are increases in regional temperatures, which are uneven due to the Earth being covered mostly in cold water. As the Earth warms up, temperatures over landmasses heat up far more quickly than they do over the oceans, thus, temperatures for some places such as parts of Africa, the Arctic, Canada and Eurasia, which are already seeing spikes, are likely to continue to do so. Some experts warn these areas might see the 2 degree threshold in just ten or twenty years.The next round of talks is scheduled to begin next month in Durban, South Africa, and some members of the research team are already speaking out, suggesting that unless immediate action is taken, the opportunity of meeting the 2 degree ceiling could slip away. Citation: Report: Holding global warming to 2C increase still possible if nations act (2011, October 24) retrieved 18 August 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2011-10-global-2c-nations.html Explore furtherlast_img read more

Think before you get inked

first_imgYou may experience mixed emotions before getting your first tattoo. Think hard before you take the plunge so that it’s not an impulsive decision, say experts. Tattoo artists have rounded up some important points you must consider before getting inked: Choice of tattoo design: Tattoos are forever. It is a permanent piece of art on the skin. One should go in for a personalised, meaningful design and take suggestions from the tattoo artist as well. It should never be done in a hurry. One should never regret getting any of their tattoos. Also Read – Add new books to your shelfChoosing the artist: Just because a tattoo shop is in your neighbourhood, doesn’t mean you have to get it done there itself. Make sure you’ve done enough research about the place before you get the tattoo done. It is important to check the reviews, authenticity and work of tattoo artist/studio. Once you find a reputed artist, visit the studio for a consultation. Inspecting the studio: The most important thing about getting a tattoo done is to get it done at a safe and hygienic shop to avoid catching any infection or other diseases. The shop should be clutter-free and may smell good. But, one needs to make sure that all tools are sanitised.last_img read more

Girls more likely to develop maths anxiety

first_imgGirls tend to be more affected by ‘maths anxiety’ than boys, according to a study which shows that teachers and parents may inadvertently play a role in a child developing the fear of numbers. While mathematics is often considered a hard subject, not all difficulties with the subject result from cognitive difficulties. Many children and adults experience feelings of anxiety, apprehension, tension or discomfort when confronted by a maths problem. Also Read – Add new books to your shelfScientists at the University of Cambridge in the UK explored the nature and resolution of ‘mathematics anxiety’. In a sample of 1,000 Italian students, the researchers found that girls in both primary and secondary school had higher levels of both maths anxiety and general anxiety. More detailed investigation in 1,700 UK school children found that a general feeling that maths was more difficult than other subjects often contributed to maths anxiety. Students pointed to poor marks or test results, or negative comparisons to peers or siblings as reasons for feeling anxious. Also Read – Over 2 hours screen time daily will make your kids impulsive”While every child’s maths anxiety may be different, with unique origins and triggers, we found several common issues among both the primary and secondary school students that we interviewed,” said Denes Szucs from the University of Cambridge. Students often discussed the role that their teachers and parents played in their development of maths anxiety. Primary-aged children referred to instances where they had been confused by different teaching methods, while secondary students commented on poor interpersonal relations. Secondary students indicated that the transition from primary to secondary school had been a cause of maths anxiety, as the work seemed harder and they could not cope. There was also greater pressure from tests and an increased homework load. Teachers and parents also need to be aware that their maths anxiety might influence the child’s maths anxiety and that gendered stereotypes about mathematics suitability and ability might contribute to the gender gap in maths performance. “Teachers, parents, brothers and sisters and classmates can all play a role in shaping a child’s maths anxiety,” said Ros McLellan from Cambridge, adding “Parents and teachers should also be mindful of how they may unwittingly contribute to a child’s anxiety. Tackling their own anxieties and belief systems might be the first step to helping their children or students,” said McLellan. The researchers said that as maths anxiety is present from a young age but may develop as the child grows, further research should be focused on how maths anxiety can be best remediated before any strong link with performance begins to emerge.last_img read more